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Vladimir Putin claims that Russia invaded Ukraine to halt the eastward expansion of the NATO alliance. Three months into the war, Putin has misplayed his hand right into his alleged fear, as Finland and Sweden look set to join it.

This video examines Putin's execution of "domino theory" doctrine---the idea that failing to stop one threat leads to more threats down the line. Often absent from domino theory discussions is the fact that fighting wars weakens your military capacity to win other conflicts later. Thus, fighting for reputation creates a dilemma, and perhaps one that Putin poorly navigated this time around.

0:00 Finland and Sweden Are Joining NATO
0:53 History of Domino Theory
2:38 Examples of Domino Theory
3:29 Putin Implementing Domino Theory
4:18 Reputation's Downside Risk
4:48 The Habsburg Empire's Failure
5:37 Visualizing the Dilemma
7:11 Great Britain's Conservative Approach
8:27 Putin's Miscalculation
9:57 The U.S.'s Post WWII Weariness
10:51 War Exhaustion
12:03 Putin's War Exhaustion Problem

Images licensed under CC BY 2.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/):

FinnishGovernment:
flickr.com/photos/finnishgovernment/51901001571

OSCE Special Monitoring Mission: flickr.com/photos/osce_smmu/16544235410/

Images licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/):

Ningyou: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_Cross_of_Burgundy.svg

RIAN Archive:
visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#21225
visualrian.ru/ru/site/gallery/#644461

Images licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/):

President.gov.ua:
president.gov.ua/en/photos/oficijnij-vizit-prezidenta-ukrayini-do-velikoyi-britaniyi-3693

Mvs.gov.ua:
facebook.com/photo/?fbid=325710482917941&set=pcb.325710929584563

Kremlin.ru:
kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49437/
kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49710/
kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50329/
kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57071/
kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828/
kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68016/

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